Weekly financial markets review

      
    
Weekly financial markets review
Aktualności / 2024-02-27 / autorzy: Piotr Minkina


Key information from the past week

 

1. Poland: Retail Sales
According to Statistics Poland, retail sales at constant prices fell by 19.5% in January 2024 compared to December 2023, and rose by 3.0% compared to January last year (market expectations were at 1.4%). At current prices, the change was respectively: -19.7% m/m and 4.6% y/y. In y/y terms, sales rose thanks to increases in the categories of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts, and solid, liquid and gas fuels.

Source: GUS. Own compilation.

Source: GUS. Own compilation.

2. Poland: Business Climate in Industrial Processing, Construction, Trade and Services
According to Statistics Poland, sentiment has improved in all business areas in Poland in February, compared to October, with the exception of transport and warehousing. Still, only at financial and insurance companies does sentiment indicate prosperity. The downturn is strongest in manufacturing.

Source: GUS. Own compilation.

3. Poland: Industrial Production
According to data released by Statistics Poland, Polish industry's sold production rose by 2.3% m/m in January, compared to the expected 3.8%. The figures for December were revised upward – from -9.8% to -9.5%. Year-on-year, industrial output rose by 1.6% (at constant prices, non-seasonally adjusted), against market expectations at around 3.1%.

Source: GUS. Own compilation.

4. Poland: Wages and Salaries
According to Statistics Poland data, the average monthly wage and salary in the enterprise sector reached PLN 7,768.35 in January. Year-on-year, wages rose by 12.85% in nominal terms (an increase in nominal growth relative to December 2023). In real terms (i.e., after deducting the declining price growth rate from the wage growth rate), wage growth was strongly positive at 8.95%. Month-to-month, average monthly wages and salaries rose by 1.94%. The unemployment level rose from 5.1% to 5.4%, as expected.

Source: GUS. Own compilation.

5. Poland: Consumer Confidence
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the current consumer confidence index, has been unchanged from January. The value of the Current Consumer Confidence Index, published by Statistics Poland, was -12.6 points. In the corresponding period in 2023, the level of pessimism was -36.0 points. The value of the Forward Consumer Confidence Index (FCCI) fell by 1.5 points, to -5.3. Poles continue to assess the future situation as better than the present one.

Source: GUS. Own compilation.

6. Germany: GDP
The rate of economic growth was in line with expectations in Q4 2023, at -0.4% y/y (-0.3 y/y after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects), according to Destatis.

7. Germany: IFO
German business sentiment, as measured by the value of the IFO index, has gently improved. The index level has been 85.5 points in February, compared to 85.2 points in January. The dynamics of the various components in different sectors of the economy were mixed. The sentiment has improved in services and construction, while it has deteriorated in industry and trade.

Source: IFO. Own compilation.

Source: IFO. Own compilation.

 

This week:

  • Poland: GDP, PMI
  • Eurozone: GDP, CPI, PPI, consumer sentiment, PMI
  • USA: GDP, PCE, ISM
  • Japan: CPI, retail sales, industrial production